Official figures released last week show that the UK’s industrial sector staged a recovery in November, with manufacturing output rising more than expected and the North Sea’s biggest oil field resuming production after a temporary closure.

The National Office for Statistics estimates that the UK’s manufacturing output increased by 4.3% and that its overall industrial production increased by 2.1%, with the largest contribution coming from oil and pharmaceutical companies.

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: “Despite November’s surge, industrial production will be lower in the fourth quarter of 2016 as a whole than in the third. We think production likely fell in December, because unusually warm temperatures probably reduced the output of the energy-supply sector.

“As a result, industrial production likely fell for the second consecutive quarter, leaving the services sector as the sole locomotive of growth at the end of the year.”

The first official estimate of growth in the fourth quarter of 2016 — and in the whole year — will be published by the ONS on 26 January.