According to a survey published recently by EEF (
www.eef.org.uk) and business advisory firm BDO LLP, the outlook for Britain’s manufacturers is deteriorating because of factors related to Brexit uncertainty, weaker global growth and the impact of protectionist policies.
The survey covered 329 companies interviewed between 31 October and 21 November.
According to the survey, while output and orders remain positive, there has been a clear moderation in the strength of balances throughout 2018, which has so far accelerated in the final quarter.
There is also anecdotal evidence that companies are “putting in plans to increase their inventory levels ahead of the UK’s exit from the European Union”.
Meanwhile, exports — which have boosted the manufacturing sector over the last few years — appear to have ‘hit the brakes’.
Stephen Phipson, EEF chief executive, said: “The moderation in manufacturing performance over the course of this year appears to have gathered pace during the final quarter, with more ‘clouds on the horizon’ than there have been for some time.
“This should come as no surprise, given the significant political uncertainty at home.
"If everything that can go right does, then business and consumer confidence should gather some steam next year, with improved prospects for growth.”
Tom Lawton, head of manufacturing at BDO, said: “Manufacturers have remained reasonably confident over the course of the year, but the sharp decline in export orders is a real cause for concern.
There are likely to be a number of causes for the fall in exports this quarter, uncertainty over our future relationship with the EU being the main one.
In addition, more-subdued global growth, the fading effects of sterling devaluation and the rise of protectionist policies appear to be starting to take their toll on growth.
“Overseas demand has helped to sustain manufacturing growth over the last few years, and the EU remains the most important trading block for UK manufacturers.
“It is crucial that Britain is seen to be open for business with the EU and other key global markets.”