The global natural gas market is undergoing a major transformation, driven by new supplies coming from the USA to
meet growing demand from developing economies, says the IEA’s (International Energy Agency) latest market analysis and five-year forecast on natural gas.

This evolution of the role of natural gas in the global energy mix has far-reaching consequences on energy trade, air quality and carbon emissions, as well as the security of global energy supplies, according to the IEA report, Gas 2017.

Global gas demand is expected to grow by 1.6% a year for the next five years, with consumption reaching almost 4,000 billion m³ (bcm) by 2022, up from 3,630 bcm in 2016. China will account for 40% of this growth.

The USA — the world’s largest gas consumer and producer — will account for 40% of the world’s extra gas production to 2022, thanks to the growth of its domestic shale industry.

By 2022, US production will be 890 bcm — more than a fifth of global gas output. Production from Marcellus, one of the world’s largest fields, will increase by 45% between 2016 and 2022, even at current low price levels, as producers increase their efficiency and produce more gas with fewer rigs.

While US domestic demand for gas is growing thanks to higher consumption from the industrial sector, more than half of the production increase will be used to meet export demand for liquified natural gas (LNG).

The IEA estimates that the USA will be on course to challenge Australia and Qatar for global leadership among LNG exporters by 2022.