A new study published last month analyses how clean fuels, electric-vehicle powertrains and increased vehicle efficiency can combine to support the European Union’s low-carbon mobility targets.

Commissioned by ePURE and delivered by Ricardo, the study examines three different scenarios for the decarbonisation of light-duty vehicles (LDVs) in the EU fleet between 2020 and 2050: low, medium and high deployment of electric-vehicle powertrains, with similar regulatory target objectives for improving average new-vehicle CO₂ emissions.

The impacts of the three scenarios on energy consumption and green-house gas (GHG) emissions were analysed using Sultan, a modelling tool developed by Ricardo for the EU.

This enables users to test transport policies and assess their impacts on GHG emissions, energy consumption and costs. Additional factors, such as the increased use of low-carbon fuels (including biofuels), were then incorporated into the analysis.

The results suggest that the increased use of low-carbon fuels in scenarios with low deployment of electric vehicles would achieve greater emission reductions than scenarios with high-electrification alone.

This indicates that low-carbon fuels could provide GHG reductions that would otherwise not be achieved, to help meet challenging long-term EU policy objectives.

It suggests they could mitigate the potential uncertainty associated with electric vehicles — such as the longer-term GHG intensity of electricity use or the availability of key resources needed for manufacture.

The study also highlights the impact that increases in fuel economy could have on GHG emissions, with many benefits up to 2030 likely to be delivered by innovations in the efficiency of conventional vehicles.

Nik Hill, Ricardo Energy & Environment knowledge leader for transport technology and fuels, said: “The EU has set ambitious targets for decarbonising the transport sector over the next 30 years.

"By starting from a point of technology neutrality, Sultan allows us to explore various policy scenarios and provide guidance on the balance of technologies likely to be required to deliver short- and long-term goals.”

“Europe’s Clean Mobility Outlook: Scenarios for the EU light-duty vehicle fleet, associated energy needs and emissions, 2020-2050” can be downloaded for free from the Ricardo Web site (ee.ricardo.com).