The recent upturn seen in the UK manufacturing sector was constrained by supply-chain disruption and rising cost pressure in February, keeping output growth only marginal despite a modest improvement in new order intakes, according to a new survey (data was collected between 11-23 February).

The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 55.1 in February, up from 54.1 in January and above the flash estimate of 54.9. The PMI has now signalled growth for nine months in a row. Output rose at the weakest pace during the current nine-month sequence of increase and new orders expanded following a slight decrease in January, as domestic demand improved and new export business inched higher.

Companies reported improved demand from several markets – including the USA, Asia, Scandinavia and (in a few cases) mainland Europe – but noted that the ongoing impact of Covid-19, Brexit complications and shipping difficulties also constrained export order growth.

Investment goods was the best performing sector during February, registering the fastest growth of output, new orders, new export business and employment of the three industries covered by the survey. Intermediate goods also saw production and new business increase, in contrast to the continued downturn at consumer goods producers.

Business optimism rose to a 77-month high in February, with over 63% of companies reporting that they expect output to be higher in one year's time. Positive sentiment was linked to continued recovery from the pandemic, re-opening of the global economy (including less transport restrictions) and reduced Brexit uncertainties. Backlogs of work also ticked higher, increasing for the fourth month running.

The combination of rising output, new orders and outstanding business alongside improved sentiment among manufacturers encouraged further job creation. Employment rose for the second month running and at the quickest pace since June 2018. Hirings also reflected the ongoing recovery from Covid-19 and raising capacity to meet future demand growth.Input cost inflation accelerated for the tenth straight month in February and to its highest rate for over four years.

Output prices subsequently rose at the fastest pace since January 2018.The prime drivers of rising costs were supply-chain disruption and raw material shortages. Average vendor lead times lengthened to one of the greatest extents in the near 30-year survey history.

Over 64% of firms reported higher purchase prices, while nearly 59% saw supplier delivery delays.February saw a further substantial reduction to stocks of finished products. The rate of depletion was the steepest since September 2009, reflecting disruption to production schedules and manufacturers intentionally selling from inventories.