Boeing forecasts demand through to 2043

Boeing says that with air travel fully recovered and even surpassing pre-pandemic demand, its 2024 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) is projecting a 3% increase in aeroplane deliveries over the next 20 years, with carriers requiring nearly 44,000 new commercial aircraft by 2043. It also predicts that emerging markets and global single-aisle market demand will remain primary growth drivers for the industry.

Brad McMullen, Boeing’s senior vice president of commercial sales and marketing, said: “Air travel demand continues to outpace economic growth in an increasingly connected world. Four years after the pandemic grounded most of the global fleet, air traffic growth has returned to the long-term trend Boeing forecast 20 years ago. Compared to 2023, passenger air traffic will rise an average of 4.7% annually over the next two decades.

“This is a challenging and inspiring era for aviation. The return to more typical traffic growth shows how resilient our industry is, even as we all work through ongoing supply chain and production constraints amid other global challenges.”

Boosting productivity
Some of the CMO forecast highlights through to 2043 include that the global commercial fleet is projected to grow 3.2% annually, which is more slowly than air traffic as airlines continue to boost productivity by increasing load factors and using aeroplane more hours per day. Also, that the air cargo fleet, with its offer of speed and reliability, consistently outperforms other modes of transport and will increase by two-thirds by 2043, to support 4.1% annual air cargo traffic growth.

Regarding key growth drivers, the CMO says South Asia passenger traffic will increase 7.4%, followed by Southeast Asia (7.2%), and Africa (6.4%), as emerging markets return to historical growth trends through the forecast period. ‘Eurasia’ is projected to lead all markets with the most aeroplane deliveries (22% of total) with North America (20%) and China (20%) close behind, with single-aisle types making up 71% of the 2043 fleet after 33,380 new deliveries serving short- to medium-haul routes. The global widebody fleet will more than double, with twin-aisles comprising 44% of the Middle East fleet.

Boeing has published the CMO annually since 1961, and it is generally regarded as the most comprehensive analysis of the commercial aviation industry. The complete outlook is available at the website here.