Boeing says that with a strong air cargo market exceeding pre-pandemic levels, the company is forecasting continued long-term growth and predicting that air cargo traffic will increase by an average of 4% per year through to 2043. These projections appear in Boeing’s
2024 World Air Cargo Forecast (WACF), the biennial overview and long-term outlook for the air cargo industry.
Darren Hulst, Boeing’s vice president of commercial marketing, said: “As the quickest and most reliable way to move goods, air cargo’s sustained growth has returned the industry to its long-term trend. There will be many drivers for continued freighter demand over the next 20 years, including expansion of emerging markets and global growth in manufacturing and e-commerce.”
The 2024 WACF suggests that the global air cargo fleet will increase to 3,900 aeroplanes by 2043, a two-thirds increase from 2,340 freighters in 2023, and that demand in high-growth Asian markets will see the large widebody freighter fleet will nearly double. Also, that nearly half of production and conversion deliveries will replace retiring freighters with more capable and fuel-efficient models — although due to recent market needs, many older jets remain in service.
Geographically, Boeing says East and South Asian markets will see the highest traffic growth per year, driven by expanding economies and consumer demand; and with the Asia-Pacific fleet expected to nearly triple, carriers in that region will require the most deliveries (980), followed closely by North America (955). These two regions will account for more than two-thirds of global deliveries.
Boeing’s WACF predicts that India’s domestic air cargo market will nearly quadruple as express and e-commerce networks expand; it also says that express carriers will serve one quarter of the air cargo market (up from current 18%).
Freighter deliveries for the period 2024-2043 are expected to be 2,845, of which production will comprise 1,005 and conversions 1,840. Regarding aircraft types, Boeing suggests these will comprise 1,250 standard bodies, 785 medium bodies, and 810 wide bodies. The complete 2024 World Air Cargo Forecast can be found
www.boeing.com/wacf here.