UK small businesses could be hardest hit if taxes rise in the Autumn Budget, according to new research from
Novuna Business Finance carried out a week before the Chancellor’s statement due later today. The study asked a nationally representative sample of 2,000 consumers for their views on the Budget and its potential impact.
While households said they would most welcome lower energy bills (66%), a cheaper weekly food shop (62%) and lower taxes (44%), many expressed concern for the position of small businesses in their communities. When asked which areas of the economy would be most at risk if taxes go up, 58% of respondents cited small businesses, followed by pubs and restaurants (48%), high street shops (47%), self-employed individuals (43%), farmers (36%) and music venues (20%).
Regional concern was particularly strong in East Anglia (65%), Scotland (63%), the North East (60%) and Yorkshire (60%), where people feared the impact of higher taxes on local enterprises. Reflecting on priorities for economic recovery, respondents said the Government should focus investment on UK manufacturing (35%), hospitality (31%), agriculture (28%) and retail (27%).
The consumer findings mirror Novuna’s Q4 research among 1,000 small business owners, which reveals that 86% fear Budget measures could adversely affect growth plans. Following last year’s National Insurance rise, 59% worry about further increases, while VAT (50%), income tax (50%) and fuel duty (37%) are also top concerns.
More than a third of owners (34%) are worried about potential pension raids, and 37% fear additional taxes on diesel or petrol vehicles. Confidence among small businesses has fallen sharply, with only 25% forecasting growth for the final quarter of 2025 – the lowest level in five years and down from 35% a year ago.
Joanna Morris, head of insight at Novuna Business Finance, said: “The broad-based levels of public support for UK small businesses are a recognition of the important role they are seen to play in communities across the UK – in terms of driving economic growth, creating jobs and supporting community projects.
“The last four quarters have seen consecutive falls in small business confidence and our new research suggests small businesses cannot keep absorbing market pressures to their cost-line and cashflow. We are all committed to growth in this country but small businesses need a ‘Budget for Business.’ With 5.7 million SMEs in the UK, our small businesses in communities across the UK are the engine room of economic growth, innovation and job creation — and we all need to support them so we can lay the foundations for business success into 2026.”