According to Airbus (www.airbus.com
), the world’s passenger and freighter aircraft fleet is set to more than double from today’s figure of nearly 23,000 to almost 48,000 by 2038, with traffic growing at 4.3% annually (and resulting in a need for 550,000 new pilots and 640,000 new technicians).
Of the forecast 47,680 fleet in 2038, 39,210 will be new and 8,470 will remain from today.
By updating fleets with latest-generation fuel-efficient aircraft — such as the A220, A320neo Family, the A330neo and the A350 — Airbus believes it will largely contribute to the progressive decarbonisation of the air transport industry and the objective of carbon-neutral growth from 2020.
Reflecting today’s evolving aircraft technology, the company has simplified its segmentation to consider capacity, range and mission type.
For example, a short-haul A321 is classified as Small (S) while the long-haul A321LR or XLR is Medium (M); and while the core market for the A330 is classified as M, it is likely that a number will continue to be operated by airlines in a way that sits within the Large (L) market segmentation (along with the A350 XWB).
According to Airbus’s Global Market Forecast 2019-2038, this new segmentation gives rise to a need for 39,210 new passenger and freighter aircraft — 29,720 S, 5,370 M and 4,120 L.
Of these, 25,000 aircraft are for growth, and 14,210 are to replace older models with newer ones offering superior efficiency.
Christian Scherer, Airbus chief commercial officer and head of Airbus International, said: “The 4% annual growth reflects the resilient nature of aviation, weathering short-term economic shocks and geo-political disturbances. Economies thrive on air transportation.
"People and goods want to connect. Globally, commercial aviation stimulates GDP growth and supports 65 million jobs, demonstrating the immense benefits our business brings to all societies and global trade.”