First signs of Russian sanctions biting adds to exporting uncertainty

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The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a recovery in UK exports in February 2022 from December 2021, but this was short-lived according to the latest Exporter Monitor by Coriolis Technologies and The Institute of Export & International Trade (IOE&IT), as the data suggest that compared to March 2022 the number of exporters fell back in April 2022 by 3.1%, employees by nearly 6%, and revenues by nearly 4%. A total of 61,915 businesses exported in April 2022, accounting for some 13,302,762 employees and £4,857,689,565 in turnover.

The IOE&IT says the outlook for the coming months looks difficult for UK exporters, especially given the current geopolitical situation. “Our projections suggest that there could be a mild uptick during May. However, the June and July forecasts show that exporter numbers will flat-line at best; at worst, any May growth will be short-lived.

“During April, the numbers of small businesses exporting dropped the most steeply, by some 4.31%, while the drop in larger exporters was much smaller at 1.3%. However, in terms of revenues and employees, it is the larger businesses that are showing the greatest decline, of over 4% in revenues and over 6% in employment compared to a year earlier.

“This is particularly concerning because many smaller businesses rely on the supply chain effects of larger businesses, and if these are falling back, it presents a real challenge to UK originating export supply chains in the future.”