Van market dips in January as EV targets get steeper

New light commercial vehicle registrations fell sharply at the start of 2026, with the UK market down ‑7.8% in January as 17,562 vans, pickups and 4x4s entered service. According to the latest data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), this represents the weakest opening month since 2012, reflecting the difficult economic climate and a decline in business confidence that continues to limit fleet renewal and investment.

The largest contraction occurred in the pickup sector, where registrations dropped by ‑57% to 1,206 units. The fall follows recent fiscal changes that now classify double‑cab pickups as cars for benefit‑in‑kind and capital allowance purposes — cost increases the industry had warned would significantly impact demand. Medium van registrations also fell, down ‑27.4% to 2,547 units, while the small van segment declined by ‑39.8% to just 402 vehicles. Only large vans and 4x4 models saw growth, rising 10% to 12,696 units and 33.9% to 711 respectively.

Electric vans performed positively, with registrations up 26% to 1,844 units. Despite this improvement, electric models accounted for only 10.4% of the market in January. To meet the mandated 24% target for 2026, uptake would need to more than double—an especially challenging prospect given the current market downturn, even with more than half of LCV models now available as EVs and supported by unprecedented discounts.

Downward revision
The industry’s latest full‑year outlook has consequently been revised downwards. Registrations are now expected to reach 321,000 units in 2026. Although this still represents a 1.9% improvement on 2025, it is well below the 335,000 previously forecast. Battery‑electric vans are expected to grow by more than 50% this year, but their projected market share has been reduced to 13.1%, compared with the 14% anticipated in the October outlook.

Manufacturers continue to call for clearer long‑term policy direction to support fleet operators and improve market stability. While the extension of the Plug‑in Van Grant until 2027 was welcomed, the sector is still awaiting clarity on funding arrangements beyond April. The new Depot Charging Scheme and proposed planning reforms for private charging infrastructure are viewed as helpful, but significant barriers remain—notably high energy costs, limited public charging suitable for vans and long waits for grid connection at fleet depots.

The SMMT’s CEO Mike Hawes concluded: “January’s decline in new van uptake reflects ongoing economic and fiscal conditions which are limiting demand, particularly for pickups, as industry had warned. Rising EV uptake is encouraging but delivering the UK’s world-leading ambition is coming at huge cost to industry amid overall market contraction. With an even steeper 2026 target that is further still from real-world demand, the Government’s review of the transition must come urgently, recognising additional action is needed to deliver on ambition.”