UK manufacturing production rose at its fastest pace for 21 months in June, although fresh signs emerged that the sector's recent recovery may be beginning to lose momentum, according to the latest S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI survey.
The seasonally adjusted
S&P Global UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) registered 52.5 in June, down from May's four-year high of 53.9 and below the earlier flash estimate of 53.1. Despite the monthly decline, the PMI remained above the neutral 50.0 mark for the eighth consecutive month, signalling continued expansion across the sector.
A key positive was the acceleration in output growth, with manufacturing production increasing at the fastest rate since September 2024. June also marked the third successive month of rising production, supported by stronger new work intakes, improving market confidence and promotional activity.
Growth was concentrated in the consumer and intermediate goods sectors, while investment goods producers continued to experience a decline in output.
However, there were indications that the factors driving the recent upturn may be starting to weaken. New orders increased for a seventh consecutive month, but the pace of growth slowed to its weakest level since December 2025. Export orders also rose for a sixth month in succession, although the increase was only modest and the slowest during the current growth sequence.
Manufacturers reported improved demand from mainland China, the EU and the US, helping to support overseas sales. Nevertheless, some companies noted that opportunities in the Middle East had stalled due to the ongoing conflict in the region.
Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: "The UK manufacturing sector ended the second quarter of the year on a positive note, with output expanding at the fastest pace since September 2024.
"Sustaining the upturn is becoming a bigger concern. Manufacturers are currently benefiting from client strategic stockpiling, as they safeguard against supply chain disruptions and expected price rises. A drop in the rate of growth of new work intakes suggests this boost is already starting to fade."
The survey found that four of the five PMI sub-components remained at levels consistent with improving operating conditions. Output, new orders and employment all expanded, while supplier delivery times lengthened. However, S&P Global cautioned that longer delivery times largely reflected supply chain constraints rather than stronger demand.
Purchasing inventories fell during June after increasing in the previous survey period, while manufacturers continued to report significant disruption across global supply chains. Shipping delays, material shortages, regulatory issues, tariff-related disruption and vendor capacity constraints all contributed to longer lead times.
Business confidence also remained subdued. While 48% of manufacturers surveyed expect production to increase over the coming year, this was slightly below the combined proportion expecting either no change or a decline in activity.
Companies forecasting growth cited new market opportunities, planned product launches, greater use of new technologies such as artificial intelligence and data centres, and expectations of more stable market conditions. Others, however, said ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding government policy were encouraging a greater focus on consolidation rather than expansion.
Employment increased for a third consecutive month, although the pace of hiring remained modest. Some firms reported that higher output and order volumes were supporting recruitment, but these gains were being partially offset by headcount freezes and cost-control measures in response to uncertain market conditions and rising input prices.