BCC Quarterly International Trade Outlook update

Posted on 28 Nov 2019 and read 742 times
BCC Quarterly International Trade Outlook updateThe latest Quarterly International Trade Outlook (QITO) from British Chambers of Commerce and DHL shows that “indicators for exporting manufacturers in Q3 2019 have undergone large declines, with several key indicators for orders and cash-flow now in negative territory” (www.britishchambers.org.uk).

The percentage balance of exporting manufacturers reporting an increase in export orders fell to -1%, down from
+9% in the previous quarter.

The balance of those reporting increased domestic orders fell to -4% in Q3, down from +8% in Q2. The balance of exporting manufacturers reporting improved cash flow stood at -5% in Q3, down from +6% in Q2. In Q3 2018, the balance stood at +13%.

While exporting manufacturers saw large declines across the QITO indicators, the exporting services sector also saw indicators well below historical levels. In Q3, +8% of exporting service sector firms reported an increase in domestic orders, down from +12% in Q2. A balance of 0% reported an increase in export orders, down from +5%.

BCC director general Adam Marshall said: “A strong and balanced economy needs healthy exporters at its core; but while there are some companies bucking the trend, future sales and orders are now well into negative territory, after a steady downward trend in export performance this year.

“On top of Brexit uncertainty and global trade tensions, election turbulence won’t be helping.

“The next administration will need to move fast to restore confidence, with action to upgrade infrastructure, boost skills and cut business costs.

"Without urgent clarity around our future trading relationship with the EU, firms across the UK will increasingly struggle to fill order books, and jobs and prosperity in many of our communities could be at risk.”

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