recent annual forecast for the commercial, defence and space aerospace market reflects signs of the industry’s recovery following the impacts of Covid-19. The 2021 Boeing Market Outlook
(BMO) — Boeing’s analysis of long-term market dynamics — states that commercial aircraft and services are showing signs of recovery, while the global defence, space and government services markets have remained stable.
The BMO projects a $9 trillion market over the next decade for aerospace products and services that Boeing addresses. The forecast is up from $8.5 trillion a year ago, and up from $8.7 trillion in the pre-pandemic 2019 forecast, ‘reflecting the market’s continued recovery progress’.
Marc Allen, Boeing’s chief strategy officer, said: “As our industry recovers and continues to adapt to meet new global needs, we remain confident in long-term growth for aerospace. We are encouraged by the fact that scientists have delivered vaccines more rapidly than imaginable and that passengers are demonstrating strong confidence in aeroplane travel.”
The new Commercial Market Outlook
(CMO) reflects that the global market is recovering largely as Boeing projected in 2020. Demand for domestic air travel is leading the recovery, with intra-regional markets expected to follow as health and travel restrictions ease, followed by long-haul travel’s return to pre-pandemic levels by 2023 to 2024.
Within the BMO, the CMO projects 10-year global demand for 19,000 commercial airplanes valued at $3.2 trillion. Boeing’s 20-year ‘commercial forecast through 2040’ projects demand for more than 43,500 new airplanes valued at $7.2 trillion, an increase of about 500 planes over last year’s forecast.
In a significant area of growth, projected demand has increased for dedicated freighters, including new and converted models. Boeing says that with sustained demand for air cargo tied to expanding e-commerce and air freight’s ‘speed and reliability’, the CMO projects the global freighter fleet in 2040 will be 70% larger than the pre-pandemic fleet.
The BMO also projects that the ‘defence and space market opportunity’ will remain consistent with last year’s forecast at $2.6 trillion during the next decade.