Manufacturing output volumes fall in quarter to August

Manufacturing output volumes fell at a sharp pace in the quarter to August, after being broadly flat in July, according to the CBI’s latest Industrial Trends Survey (ITS). Manufacturers expect output to fall again over three months to November. Total and export order books were both reported as below “normal” and were below their long-run averages. Stocks of finished goods were more than adequate in August, but that adequacy stands below the long-run average.

Meanwhile, expectations for selling price inflation eased noticeably in August, with the expected pace of growth in selling prices over the coming quarter the weakest since October and around its long-run average.

The survey, based on the responses of 311 manufacturers, found: output volumes fell in the three months to August, after being broadly flat in the three months to July (weighted balance of -22%, from -2% in the quarter to July). Manufacturers expect output volumes to decline again in the three months to November (-13%); output decreased in 14 out of 17 sub-sectors in the three months to August, with the fall in output being driven by the chemicals, paper, printing and media, and metal products sub sectors; total order books were reported as below ‘normal’ in August (-33%, from -30% in July).

Subdued order books
The level of order books remained significantly below the long-run average (-14%); export order books were also below ‘normal’, to a greater extent than in July (-33%, from -21% in July). The balance also stands below the long-run average (-19%); expectations for average selling price inflation eased in August (+9%, from +21% in July). August’s expectations were the weakest since October 2024 and stand close to the long-run average (+7%); and stocks of finished goods were reported as more than ‘adequate’ in August (+7%, from +14% in July). The level of stock adequacy is below the long-run average (+12%).

Ben Jones, CBI lead economist, said: “Manufacturers report that rising costs are squeezing margins and leaving customers more cautious, which in turn is hitting orders and weighing on output. With weak demand compounded by trade frictions and policy uncertainty, the outlook for UK manufacturers remains challenging. As firms continue to cite, they are contending with a range of cost pressures from high energy costs to the additional burden from last year's Autumn Budget increase in employer NICs.

“Against this backdrop, the upcoming Autumn Budget is a pivotal moment to shore up business sentiment. The government must provide business tax certainty and further Growth and Skills Levy flexibility, accelerate industrial and infrastructure strategy implementation, and broaden support to tackle uncompetitive energy prices. The CBI stands ready to partner with the Government to co-design the policies that will build a truly competitive, innovative, and prosperous UK economy.”