In the third quarter of 2025, Italy’s machine tool sector showed signs of resilience, with the
Ucimu-Sistemi Per Produrre index of machine tool orders registering a modest 1.1% increase compared to the same period in 2024. The index, compiled by the association’s Studies Department and Business Culture Centre, reached an absolute value of 53.3 (base year 2021 = 100), reflecting a market in flux.
Domestic demand provided a welcome boost, climbing 12.4% year-on-year to an index value of 15.4. However, this uptick was offset by a 7.7% decline in foreign orders, which settled at 87.1—highlighting the challenges facing Italian manufacturers abroad.
Riccardo Rosa, president of Ucimu-Sistemi Per Produrre, acknowledged the mixed picture. “Even if the latest measurement of the Ucimu index confirms the positive trend in domestic demand, the absolute value of the index highlights that demand is still very weak. Indeed, the downturn in overseas activity is barely counterbalanced by the recovery in the domestic market.”
Rosa pointed to broader macroeconomic and geopolitical factors weighing on the sector. “The context where we are operating is really complicated. Europe is deeply affected by the crisis in Germany and the geopolitical instability caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In particular, the transition to electric motors has triggered a sharp reduction in manufacturing activity: European automotive manufacturers are not investing, because it is not clear what will happen in the future. Moreover, companies in the supply chain are announcing plant closures and staff cuts almost every day.”
The automotive industry, traditionally a key destination for Italian machine tools, is undergoing a transformation that has yet to yield compensatory opportunities in other sectors. Mr Rosa explained: “We Italian manufacturers see that the downsizing of our main destination sector, namely the automotive industry, cannot be covered by investments from the so-called alternative sectors. For this reason, in order to ward off the spectre of industrial desertification in the Old Continent, we think it is essential to extend the transition period towards green mobility and, at the level of EU institutions, to engage in careful consideration concerning alternative forms of propulsion, capable of ensuring low emissions and, at the same time, safeguarding production, factories and jobs.”
Heavy uncertaintyLooking beyond Europe, Rosa noted that the USA has remained relatively stable, but warned of emerging trade barriers. “We are observing some cases of Italian companies that are experiencing difficulties with the deliveries of machines to the USA due to tariffs. In this regard, there is great concern, also because the attitude of the American administration has cast heavy uncertainty over the international market, actually causing a slowdown in export activity, as our order index clearly shows.”
On the home front, there is cautious optimism surrounding new industrial policy initiatives. Mr Rosa continued: “We know that the Ministry of Enterprises and Made in Italy and the Ministry of Economy and Finance are working on the definition of a new programme of industrial policy, which should support companies over the next two years. The non-positive experience of 5.0, which brought interesting results only in its final stage, should serve as a warning so that companies can have a really useful and effective tool to support the upgrading of Italian production.”
Rosa expressed support for a streamlined approach to incentives. He added: “We appreciate the idea of a single measure, even if we prefer tax credit. However, we request to include a reward bonus related to production made in EU. Finally, duration and financial provision needed to support the transformation of our factories will be crucial at a time when AI and digitalisation, if properly directed, can make a difference.”
He concluded: “We ask that the measure be applicable from the beginning of the year, avoiding the effect of exasperating wait we experienced with 5.0. As for financial provision, pressure from Asian suppliers and general instability — the primary factor leading to the freeze on investments in capital goods — require serious intervention in terms of overall economic resources to support the competitiveness of our manufacturing sector.”